I have often written that terrorism (including the brand practiced by al-Qaeda) and Wahabism are not existential threats to the United States.

I have often written that the largest, most dangerous long-term threat to the United States is China.

There are now rumblings from the East:

Top Chinese general warns US over attack
By Alexandra Harney in Beijing and Demetri Sevastopulo and Edward Alden in Washington
Published: July 14 2005 21:59 | Last updated: July 15 2005 00:03

China is prepared to use nuclear weapons against the US if it is attacked by Washington during a confrontation over Taiwan, a Chinese general said on Thursday.

“If the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China’s territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons,” said General Zhu Chenghu.

Gen Zhu was speaking at a function for foreign journalists organised, in part, by the Chinese government. He added that China’s definition of its territory included warships and aircraft.

“If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond,” said Gen Zhu, who is also a professor at China’s National Defence University.

“We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

Gen Zhu is a self-acknowledged “hawk” who has warned that China could strike the US with long-range missiles. But his threat to use nuclear weapons in a conflict over Taiwan is the most specific by a senior Chinese official in nearly a decade.

However, some US-based China experts cautioned that Gen Zhu probably did not represent the mainstream People’s Liberation Army view.

“He is running way beyond his brief on what China might do in relation to the US if push comes to shove,” said one expert with knowledge of Gen Zhu. “Nobody who is cleared for information on Chinese war scenarios is going to talk like this,” he added.

Gen Zhu’s comments come as the Pentagon prepares to brief Congress next Monday on its annual report on the Chinese military, which is expected to take a harder line than previous years. They are also likely to fuel the mounting anti-China sentiment on Capitol Hill.

In recent months, a string of US officials, including Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary, have raised concerns about China’s military rise. The Pentagon on Thursday declined to comment on “hypothetical scenarios”.

Even if General Zhu is talking out of school and going beyond the “mainstream People’s Liberation Army view” I find it unlikely that his view is completely off base. In China, saying the wrong thing can get you imprisoned, if not completely “disappeared”, so any statements from someone who has made a high rank in the Chinese military can’t be dismissed out of hand.

You cannot conduct the foreign policy of a country as if it were shadow-boxing with fanatics.
   -John Howard, Prime Minister of Australia

While we are shadow-boxing with fanatics we very well might be setting ourselves up for a sucker punch out of the East.

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Link acknowledgment: Blackfive - “John Howard On Buying Immunity From Terror”

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